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Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the chance of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle ensued, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President the president. The two endorsed a statement that the conflict was finished – a decision that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.