Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
